Friday, May 27, 2016

Previewing Day One in Cary

Recently, day one of the 2016 NCAA Division II Baseball National Finals got a lot more fun, as worries over a tropical disturbance heading for Cary on Sunday afternoon moved both of Sunday's first round games up to Saturday. Now, all eight teams will play on opening day, and inside we have a small preview of each game for you to take in and get yourself ready for a jam-packed day of action at the USA Baseball National Training Complex.

2016 NCAA Division II Baseball National Finals Tournament Page

The schedule for day one of competition on Saturday now looks like this:

10:00 a.m. - Angelo State vs Millersville
1:30 p.m. - Cal Poly Pomona vs Southern Indiana
5:00 p.m. - Nova Southeastern vs Franklin Pierce
8:30 p.m. - Lander vs Central Missouri

Let's look at each contest game-by-game and get a better look at what we can expect for the opening day of the national finals.

Angelo State (39-20, 25-10 LSC) vs Millersville (50-5, 25-3 PSAC)
Saturday, May 28th, 10:00 a.m. Eastern
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We begin the tournament with quite possibly the favorite for the title taking the field in the Marauders of Millersville. By far the best numbers in the field on offense, the Marauders are going to have to get to what I'm guessing is going to be Bryce Zak, one of the top pitchers in the country this year.

The Millersville offense is led by a pair of Stoltzfus'. Mitch leads the team in average (.426), home runs (10) and slugging (.658), while brother Dan leads the team in hits (87), doubles (21) and RBI (68) along with a .418 batting average of his own. It is going to be a grind for whichever pitcher the Rams roll out to the mound, as they'll have to traverse a lineup that features seven (7!) guys batting over .350. Not .300. That is .350. They're going to get on base (they have a .437 on-base percentage) and they are going to run (127/153 SB).

For the Marauders, they have a pretty good counter on the mound in their own in Brandon Miller, maybe the top professional prospect in Division II baseball this year. Miller is the ace of the staff with an 11-1 record and a 1.61 ERA with only 53 hits allowed in 89.2 innings. He won't have to deal with the same kind of numbers that Angelo's pitcher will have to deal with, but he'll still need to be on his game. The Rams are going to still have Paxton DeLaGarza in the middle of the lineup, who leads Angelo in average (.344), runs (46), doubles (18), home runs (9), RBI (46) and slugging (.575). He is the big bat in the lineup, and will need to have a big game to keep pace with Millersville. With all due respect to the pitching staff of the Rams, the Marauders are going to get on base and probably score some runs, so the Angelo lineup is going to have to keep pace and give themselves a shot late in the game. I would never underestimate a Kevin Brooks squad to do just that, though. The Rams are making a return trip to Cary and will be using that experience in any way possible to gain the upper hand. Despite what the numbers bear out on both sides, at this point in the year, it should never be a surprise what happens on the field.

Cal Poly Pomona (40-17, 26-11 CCAA) vs Southern Indiana (37-19, 20-8 GLVC)
Saturday, May 28th, 1:30 p.m. Eastern
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This is my favorite match-up in the first round of this year's tournament. CPP is making their second straight trip to Cary, while Southern Indiana was just here lifting the national championship trophy two years ago and about half their lineup was on that team. You have a lot of experience on both sides taking the field for what should be a very well-played game.

For the Broncos, they feature four guys hitting over .350 and will be a tall task for the USI pitching staff. Jason Padlo (.407 AVG, .465 OBP), Chris Stratton (.387 AVG, .476 OBP) and Daniel Pitts (.361 AVG) all get on base a lot, while Caleb Romo (.358, 14 2B, 10 HR, 44 RBI, .635 SLG) knocks pretty much everyone in. I won't even hazard a guess as to who USI may put on the mound in the opener. Their ace, Devin Williams, didn't see the field at all in four regional tournament games.

Flipping the script to the USI lineup, it is a wealth of talent. Ryan Bertram (.360, 16 2B, 5 HR, 48 RBI), Kyle Kempf (.358, 19 2B, 5 HR, 48 RBI), Kyle Niemeier (.340, 11 2B, 34 RBI), Hamilton Carr (.329, 10 2B), Trent Gunn (.280, 16 2B) and Andrew Cope (.241, 8 2B) are all regulars in the lineup, and they were all starters or pivotal reserves on the 2014 national title team. Bertram and Kempf, along with Sam Griggs (.345, 12 2B, 7 HR, 50 RBI), are the biggest bats in the lineup, sitting in the top three in average, RBI and slugging percentage for the team. USI is going to need those big bats and national finals experience to deal with a spectacular CPP pitching staff. Michael Koval (9-3, 1.91) and Max Bethell (10-4, 2.45) are two of the better starters in the West, and I'm sure one of them will be taking the mound for this opener.

Our prediction? The cleanest-played game of the first round.

Nova Southeastern (39-16, 18-6 SSC) vs Franklin Pierce (48-7, 25-2 NE-10)
Saturday, May 28th, 5:00 p.m. Eastern
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Contrary to the last game, where the two teams are put together pretty evenly in terms of team make-up, in this contest we almost couldn't be further away. The power, at both the plate and on the mound, of Nova Southeastern, will be going up against the small ball, speed and finesse pitching of Franklin Pierce.

For the Sharks, it is about extra bases. Brandon Gomez (.338, 15 2B, 20 HR, 71 RBI, .708 SLG), Daniel Zardon (.317, 16 2B, 13 HR, 42 RBI, .603 SLG) and Andres Visbal (.305, 11 2B, 11 HR, 47 RBI, .547 SLG) are the three-headed monster that instill fear in any pitcher, even those in the Sunshine State Conference. For FPU on the mound, it is always interesting to see how the pitchers adjust to going from wooden bats to aluminum bats in the postseason. FPU has played plenty of good teams, but nothing like the power that NSU is going to be showcasing throughout the lineup. Luckily for the Ravens, Anthony Matarazzo (11-0, 1.61), Paul Covelle (10-2, 2.00) and John Amendola (7-1, 2.13) are all well-equipped to more than hold their own against a talented lineup.

If you want the number that will contrast the most between these two lineups, consider that FPU hit 39 home runs and stole 216 bases this year, while NSU hit 80 home runs and stole 93 bases. The leader of that theft-brigade for the Ravens is Justin Brock, who not only has stolen 47 out of 55 bases this year, but is hitting .345 on the season, second on the team. The only man he trails in average is Jay Jabs, one of the top hitters in the country, who is hitting .363 with 14 home runs and 69 RBI to go along with 16 stolen bases of his own. The Ravens feature SIX guys with more than 20 stolen bases this year, and will be on the move as much as possible to try and pressure a very good NSU staff. Whether the Sharks bring out Julian Loret de Mola (6-3, 2.66) or Alex Mateo (8-4, 3.21), it is going to be a grind for the FPU lineup. The key, obviously, will be keeping the birds off the bases so the Sharks can work to whatever tempo they feel.

Lander (42-14, 22-8 PBC) vs Central Missouri (42-13, 32-7 MIAA)
Saturday, May 28th, 8:30 p.m. Eastern
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Numbers-wise, it looks like this will be our most even match-up of the first round. The numbers are comparable across the board (.299 to .306 AVG, .495 to .502 SLG, .409 to .395 OBP, 3.98 to 3.81 ERA), and the teams are built pretty evenly no matter where you look.

Looking at the lineups, both teams have plenty of power, with Lander belting 90 homers and 96 doubles this year, while the Mules smacked 72 homers and 93 doubles, but also have 25 triples to Lander's 12. UCM is much speedier on the basepaths (96/135 SB compared to 42/53) and their power is a little more concentrated (Bennett Oliver leads the team in virtually every offensive category, including 24 home runs and 57 RBI), but they are dangerous throughout. In addition to Oliver, Jake Alexander (.395, 13 2B, 16/18 SB) is a prototypical table-setter and has been one of the toughest batters in the nation to strike out this season (9 K's in 200 AB to go with 18 walks). For the Bearcats, their comeback season has been fueled by a lineup that features five guys with 12 or more homeruns, led by Zach Daly's 21 round-trippers and 75 RBI. Perhaps more impressively, Colby Lusignan is batting north of .400, has hit 13 home runs, driven in 66, and has a .500 OBP. Some of that is cancelled out by an epidemic of strikeouts in the Lander lineup, though. The Bearcats have struck out 508 times this year (their opponents only 454), compared to UCM striking out only 288 times compared to 460 for their opponents.

On the mound, UCM is led by Ethan Westphal (10-2, 2.80, 99 K in 93.1 IP, .213 BAA), who captains a 3.81 team ERA and a .242 BAA, while Lander's Will Jones (10-2, 3.33, 102 K in 105.1 IP) has been a workhorse all year for the Bearcats, outpacing the next-highest pitcher in innings thrown by over 30. Who knows if that will be the pitching match-up, but if it is, we could be in for a solid number of strikeouts or a whole lot of hits, depending on which numbers you hold in higher regard.

We wish all eight teams the best of luck over the next week or so. We hope everyone has a great time at an amazing facility in an incredible town, and that nobody suffers any major injuries. There is a lot of professional talent that will be taking the field this week, and a lot of great baseball to watch.

Going forward, we will be attempting to do recaps and previews of every game of the tournament. Check back here at the end of each night of games to find that day's recap and the next day's preview!

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