2016 National Finals Tournament Page
Region
|
Team
|
Record
|
SOS
|
SOS
Rank
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
ERA
|
K/BB
|
Atlantic
|
Millersville
|
50-5
|
.526
|
89th
|
.354
|
.437
|
.504
|
3.15
|
3.12
|
Central
|
Central
Missouri
|
42-13
|
.534
|
70th
|
.306
|
.395
|
.502
|
3.81
|
2.58
|
East
|
Franklin
Pierce
|
48-7
|
.499
|
168th
|
.303
|
.403
|
.442
|
2.27
|
4.01
|
Midwest
|
Southern
Indiana
|
37-19
|
.546
|
44th
|
.310
|
.389
|
.436
|
3.89
|
1.85
|
South
|
Nova
Southeastern
|
39-16
|
.555
|
31st
|
.307
|
.389
|
.504
|
3.52
|
2.68
|
Southeast
|
Lander
|
42-14
|
.536
|
62nd
|
.299
|
.409
|
.495
|
3.98
|
2.55
|
South
Central
|
Angelo
State
|
39-20
|
.550
|
38th
|
.301
|
.385
|
.410
|
3.33
|
2.65
|
West
|
Cal
Poly Pomona
|
40-17
|
.509
|
140th
|
.314
|
.391
|
.437
|
3.40
|
2.07
|
I took the liberty of putting some pretty basic numbers in a table format for everyone to look at. The SOS and SOS Rank numbers are from before the regional tournaments. All other numbers are updated as of today.
These numbers give us a little bit of a basis on which to base our opinions for the duration of the tournament. I chose these particular numbers because I feel as if they are the most important ratios on which to base success. It compacts the offensive numbers, how many guys are getting on base and to which bases they are getting to, and how many baserunners/runs the pitchers are allowing. They are the most simple numbers to break things down to, and they are better than just rattling off home runs and wins/losses/saves.
With that said, this year's field pretty much conforms to what is basically the make-up of the field in most other particular years. The Atlantic region team (usually) has the offensive outliers in the tournament, and the East region team (almost always) has the pitching outliers in the tournament due to wooden bat usage. So take those numbers with a grain of salt.
That is not to say Millersville isn't stellar on offense and that Franklin Pierce isn't outrageous on the mound. But the actual gap in numbers between them and the rest of the field isn't as wide as it appears. It is just the way the D-II baseball world works.
Taking those statements in to account and using the other six team's numbers, you can throw a blanket over all of them almost across the board. There are no real advantages/disadvantages outside of the level of competition they have faced, which almost always leans heavily towards the southern teams, with this year being no different. That is not to say the other teams aren't good, it is just a matter of the talent gap in the middle-to-lower tier teams in the regions. The gap in talent between Franklin Pierce and lesser teams in the East region is much wider than it is between Nova Southeastern and the lesser teams in the South, so when the schedules play out, the SOS numbers bear that out. However, when it comes to the top teams from each region reaching this point, no team from one region is ever over-matched. The top 1-3 teams in each region are all pretty interchangeable with each other, regardless.
One aspect I have been pushing the last week or so is about Southern Indiana. It is very important to remember that this is a team that won the national championship in 2014, and about half that team is on this year's squad and in this year's starting lineup. Having that experience is an incredible advantage at this point. They've been there before, and for those on their team who haven't been, I am confident that those upperclassmen have shared their experience and wisdom with them to focus on the task at hand.
To that end, Angelo State is making a return trip to the national finals after winning the region last year, as well. The same goes for Cal Poly Pomona. The other six teams, however, are new teams compared to last season's representatives, although as we mentioned, Southern Indiana is kind of exempt from that.
Without fail, almost every year you can always give a bit of a nod to the South region representative. This year is no different. Nova Southeastern is coming out of a region where all but one team in the regional tournament could have been ranked in the top 15 nationally if there wasn't a bias towards "spreading the wealth" in national polls. There were teams in that region that didn't even make the tournament that could have won the regional championships in other regions if it was possible. With that said, there is a reason NSU has the best SOS numbers of anyone in the field, and they aren't wrong. They have faced better competition than anyone else in the finals, and that is going to be a big help, considering they have seen teams of equal or better quality earlier this season, while some of the other schools in the field will be making a leap in competition that they haven't come close to for more than one weekend this year.
Numbers-wise, Millersville is the team to keep an eye on. They have been hovering around the top five nationally all year long, usually inside the top two or three. They haven't faced the best competition in the country, but they have been beating their competition badly enough where it shouldn't be an issue. They have the highest-octane offense in the field by a mile, and they have bonafide stars at both the plate and on the mound.
Angelo State and Lander are a pair of teams that are very comparable, in my opinion. Neither one of them have insane numbers from any one player or pitcher, but they are both spectacular *teams*. They do everything very, very well, but just lack the game-changer in the middle of the lineup or the guys on the mound with insane numbers. Unlike some of the other teams, there isn't an easy out anywhere in their lineup, and the fall-off from the #1 and #2 pitchers to the middle of the bullpen isn't going to be very big. Lower ceiling, but higher floor than some other teams in the finals.
Central Missouri is a dangerous team, and it is a program that has been here plenty of times before. This is the 17th time the Mules will be playing in the national finals, but the first since 2011. While the players don't have the experience on this stage, some of the coaches, and most importantly the program, do.
For those reading this from Cary currently, enjoy the moment! I had the privilege of attending the finals twice with the team I was representing, and those trips are the best parts of my college career. It isn't often that a Division II athlete, coaching staff and administrators get the red carpet rolled out for them throughout a full week, but the town of Cary and the USA Baseball National Training Complex make it feel like a high-priority event and it is a wonderful experience. Hopefully everyone enjoys the banquet and various events going on leading up to this weekend, and I know all the teams will enjoy the MLB-quality fields they'll be practicing and playing on.
Going forward in to this weekend's games, we will be attempting to do daily posts with a recap of the day's games and a preview of the next day's games on each day. Stay tuned to the blog, or keep checking out our Twitter account @D2RoadToCary.
With that said, this year's field pretty much conforms to what is basically the make-up of the field in most other particular years. The Atlantic region team (usually) has the offensive outliers in the tournament, and the East region team (almost always) has the pitching outliers in the tournament due to wooden bat usage. So take those numbers with a grain of salt.
That is not to say Millersville isn't stellar on offense and that Franklin Pierce isn't outrageous on the mound. But the actual gap in numbers between them and the rest of the field isn't as wide as it appears. It is just the way the D-II baseball world works.
Taking those statements in to account and using the other six team's numbers, you can throw a blanket over all of them almost across the board. There are no real advantages/disadvantages outside of the level of competition they have faced, which almost always leans heavily towards the southern teams, with this year being no different. That is not to say the other teams aren't good, it is just a matter of the talent gap in the middle-to-lower tier teams in the regions. The gap in talent between Franklin Pierce and lesser teams in the East region is much wider than it is between Nova Southeastern and the lesser teams in the South, so when the schedules play out, the SOS numbers bear that out. However, when it comes to the top teams from each region reaching this point, no team from one region is ever over-matched. The top 1-3 teams in each region are all pretty interchangeable with each other, regardless.
One aspect I have been pushing the last week or so is about Southern Indiana. It is very important to remember that this is a team that won the national championship in 2014, and about half that team is on this year's squad and in this year's starting lineup. Having that experience is an incredible advantage at this point. They've been there before, and for those on their team who haven't been, I am confident that those upperclassmen have shared their experience and wisdom with them to focus on the task at hand.
To that end, Angelo State is making a return trip to the national finals after winning the region last year, as well. The same goes for Cal Poly Pomona. The other six teams, however, are new teams compared to last season's representatives, although as we mentioned, Southern Indiana is kind of exempt from that.
Without fail, almost every year you can always give a bit of a nod to the South region representative. This year is no different. Nova Southeastern is coming out of a region where all but one team in the regional tournament could have been ranked in the top 15 nationally if there wasn't a bias towards "spreading the wealth" in national polls. There were teams in that region that didn't even make the tournament that could have won the regional championships in other regions if it was possible. With that said, there is a reason NSU has the best SOS numbers of anyone in the field, and they aren't wrong. They have faced better competition than anyone else in the finals, and that is going to be a big help, considering they have seen teams of equal or better quality earlier this season, while some of the other schools in the field will be making a leap in competition that they haven't come close to for more than one weekend this year.
Numbers-wise, Millersville is the team to keep an eye on. They have been hovering around the top five nationally all year long, usually inside the top two or three. They haven't faced the best competition in the country, but they have been beating their competition badly enough where it shouldn't be an issue. They have the highest-octane offense in the field by a mile, and they have bonafide stars at both the plate and on the mound.
Angelo State and Lander are a pair of teams that are very comparable, in my opinion. Neither one of them have insane numbers from any one player or pitcher, but they are both spectacular *teams*. They do everything very, very well, but just lack the game-changer in the middle of the lineup or the guys on the mound with insane numbers. Unlike some of the other teams, there isn't an easy out anywhere in their lineup, and the fall-off from the #1 and #2 pitchers to the middle of the bullpen isn't going to be very big. Lower ceiling, but higher floor than some other teams in the finals.
Central Missouri is a dangerous team, and it is a program that has been here plenty of times before. This is the 17th time the Mules will be playing in the national finals, but the first since 2011. While the players don't have the experience on this stage, some of the coaches, and most importantly the program, do.
For those reading this from Cary currently, enjoy the moment! I had the privilege of attending the finals twice with the team I was representing, and those trips are the best parts of my college career. It isn't often that a Division II athlete, coaching staff and administrators get the red carpet rolled out for them throughout a full week, but the town of Cary and the USA Baseball National Training Complex make it feel like a high-priority event and it is a wonderful experience. Hopefully everyone enjoys the banquet and various events going on leading up to this weekend, and I know all the teams will enjoy the MLB-quality fields they'll be practicing and playing on.
Going forward in to this weekend's games, we will be attempting to do daily posts with a recap of the day's games and a preview of the next day's games on each day. Stay tuned to the blog, or keep checking out our Twitter account @D2RoadToCary.
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