Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Three At-Large Regional Spots Lost After First Weekend of Conference Tournament Play

We had an extremely eventful first weekend of postseason action this past weekend, as three conference tournament champions were crowned, none of which were the favorites, setting up some dire situations for a few teams going forward.


First, let us recap the conference tournaments that have already completed play. The Conference Carolinas, SAC and SIAC all finished up tournament play, and all three tournaments carry an automatic bid to their respective regional tournaments, which in this case is two for the Southeast Region (Carolinas, SAC) and one for the South (SIAC).

The SIAC Tournament resulted in the three-seed, Albany State, capturing the conference crown, a surprising result to say the least. Albany State will carry an underwhelming 20-32 record in to the South regional tournament, where they will most likely be the sacrificial lamb at the altar for Nova Southeastern or Tampa or West Alabama or...any number of teams. Stillman was the favorite here, but fell in the title game. No SIAC teams were ranked in the most recent regional rankings, and won't be, which basically boils the South region down to a five-team region the rest of the way as Albany State is penciled in to that #6 seed.

There were also some surprises in the Conference Carolinas and SAC Tournaments that will greatly change the landscape of the Southeast regional tournament when it rolls around. The Conference Carolinas watched their top seed, Mt. Olive, go 0-2, as North Greenville, the six-seed in the six-team tournament, claimed the victory. That will cement them in to the #5 or #6 seed in the regional tournament, while the other spot will go to the SAC Tournament winner, Wingate, who came out of the five-seed spot in the eight-team tournament to earn the victory. That narrows the Southeast region down to the top four teams landing spots in the regional tournament. After Mt. Olive's 0-2 performance, a team we thought would be easily in could now be on the bubble as they were the #3 seed in last weekend's regional rankings. Newberry, the #6 seed in last week's rankings, can safely say their season has ended, while Flagler, Armstrong State, Columbus State and UNC Pembroke are going to be battling it out to get their way in. Catawba, last week's #1 seed in the Southeast region, advanced to the SAC Tournament championship, so they should hold steady in one of the top two spots in the rankings. It will be interesting to see what happens with Mt. Olive in the next couple weeks leading to the regional tournaments.

Below, we cover what happened with last week's PerfectGame.org Top 25, and what they have on the docket for this week:

#1 Nova Southeastern (36-10) won two of three over Eckerd, rebounding from a series-opening loss to score 12 and 15 runs in the doubleheader the following day. They are still holding a two-game lead in the Sunshine State Conference as they take on Barry in their final weekend of regular series competition. They will need two victories to avoid any tiebreaker scenario with Tampa and take the conference crown.

#2 Colorado Mesa (39-6) took two of three from Metro State, dropping the middle game of the series. They are still locked in to the #1 seed in the RMAC Tournament and won the RMAC regular season crown, but they will face Colorado Mines this weekend in their final series of the regular season.

#3 Franklin Pierce (39-2) still don't have many quality games on their schedule, but they are rolling over everyone on their schedule, which is all you can ask. The Ravens have now won 20 games in a row after going 5-0 last week, including a pretty good victory over Southern New Hampshire. They swept through Assumption and picked up a win over Saint Anselm. They will play Bentley this weekend in a three-game series to close their regular season, but are the clear top dog in the NE-10.

#4 Seton Hill (39-9) matched up with Mercyhurst in our Marquee Match-Up of the Week, and the two teams settled absolutely nothing as they split a four-game series. They dropped the first two games of the series before picking up wins in the second half of the weekend. They will begin the PSAC Tournament this week with a first-round game against Shippensburg on Wednesday. The Griffins are the West #2 seed as Mercyhurst claimed the top seed in the division. Shippensburg is the East #3 seed. The winner of that game will take on West #4 California (Pa.) or a very tough Millersville, the East #1 seed.

#5 Alabama-Huntsville (35-9-1) took it on the chin as West Alabama swept them in a three-game series and took the GSC regular season title away from the Chargers in a huge series to end the regular season. UAH will be the #2 seed in this weekend's GSC Tournament, taking on #5 seed Valdosta State on Saturday. #1, by virtue of that series, went to West Alabama, who is hosting the tournament.

#6 Minnesota State (35-4) pushed their winning streak to 18 straight with a four-game sweep of Sioux Falls over the weekend, outscoring their opponent 40-6 in the four games. They will finish the regular season up this week with a Wednesday doubleheader against Wayne State (Neb.) and a four-game series against Winona State this weekend. They are tied with St. Cloud State for the NSIC lead currently.

#7 Tampa (33-12) picked up a victory over Embry-Riddle and then took two of three from Saint Leo, falling in the final game of the series. They sit two back from Nova Southeastern in the SSC race entering this last weekend, where the Spartans will face last-place Rollins in a three-game set.

#8 St. Cloud State (41-3) are on an 11-game winning streak after winning all six games last week. The Huskies swept a doubleheader from Bemidji State and took all four games from Minot State, outscoring them 36-3 on the weekend. Tied with Minnesota State in the NSIC race, SCSU will need a big performance this week as they face third-place Minnesota-Duluth for a doubleheader on Wednesday before finishing the regular season with four against Northern State, who is also in the top half of the NSIC standings. Both SCSU and MSU have pretty tough schedules this week, so this will be an entertaining finish to the regular season in the NSIC.

#9 Cal Poly Pomona (33-13) split four games with Cal State Stanislaus, dropping them in to a tie in the CCAA standings with UC San Diego going in to the final weekend of play. The Broncos will face San Francisco State for four games to finish out the regular season this weekend, a team in the lower half of the standings, while UCSD will face a very good Cal State-L.A. team, giving the edge to CPP.

#10 St. Mary's (33-12) took two of three from Arkansas-Fort Smith, then picked up a pretty big non-conference win over Texas A&M-Kingsville on Tuesday. They will finish the regular season this weekend with three games against Texas A&M-International. The Rattlers are one game back of St. Edward's in the Heartland Conference, but TAMU-I is new the bottom of the conference. St. Edward's will have a little bit of a tougher task (though not much) against Newman this weekend.

#11 Columbus State (35-13) finished up their regular season with a win over Valdosta State and two of three at Armstrong State. They will have this weekend off as they prepare to make a run in the Peach Belt Conference Tournament next weekend, where North Georgia will be the top seed.

#12 Mt. Olive (35-14), as mentioned above, had a tough week, going 0-2 in the Conference Carolinas Tournament to put themselves in a bit of a predicament. They will have an opportunity on Monday, however, to make a big impression, as they will face Catawba, the Southeast's #1 team, in a non-conference game, assuming it doesn't get cancelled as many late-season non-conference games tend to. If they can pick up a victory there, it will go a long way in keeping them in the top four of the region's seeds where they need to be.

#13 St. Edward's (35-10) picked up a non-conference win over Texas A&M-Kingsville and swept three from Texas A&M-International in Heartland Conference play to carry a one-game lead in to this weekend's action against Newman, the last of the regular season. They are in a battle with St. Mary's for the regular season crown, who faces TAMU-I this weekend.

#14 UNC Pembroke (36-12) dropped two of three to Georgia Regents and will take on Wingate in a non-conference game on Wednesday to finish the regular season. After that, the Braves will have the next week and a half off as they prepare for the Peach Belt Conference Tournament.

#15 Lynn (31-12-1) had a somewhat disappointing result over the weekend, going 1-1-1 against last-place Rollins. The Fighting Knights will face Palm Beach Atlantic in a Wednesday non-conference game before taking on Florida Southern on Monday and Tuesday in a three-game series to finish out the regular season. Lynn is out of the running for the SSC crown, but they were #6 in last week's South regional rankings, making this a big weekend coming up as they will need to get in to the top five to make the regional tournament.

#16 Emporia State (34-12) beat Newman and took three of four from Pittsburg State to finish out the regular season. The Hornets are the #2 seed in the MIAA Tournament, which starts this weekend and goes through next weekend. The Hornets will face Lindenwood in a best-of-three series this weekend, with the winners from those series going on to the rest of the MIAA Tournament next weekend.

#17 Mercyhurst (32-6) picked up the West #1 seed in this week's PSAC Tournament after splitting with Seton Hill over the weekend. They will face East Stroudsburg on Wednesday to open the tournament.

#18 UC San Diego (30-15) picked up a mid-week victory over Cal State San Bernardino, tying them with Cal Poly Pomona for the CCAA lead. This week, the Tritons will finish the regular season with four games against a very good Cal State-Los Angeles team, while CPP is taking on a lesser San Francisco State squad. UCSD will need a spectacular performance to claim the regular season title, but they are in position for it.

#19 North Georgia (33-13) beat Truet-McConnell and took two of three from Montevallo, claiming the Peach Belt Conference regular season title, one year after finishing 12th in the conference. The Nighthawks will have the top seed in next weekend's PBC Tournament, but they will face Emmanuel for a three-game set this weekend to finish the regular season.

#20 West Alabama (36-9) swept two games from Montevallo and then picked up a huge sweep over Alabama-Huntsville to win the Gulf South Conference regular season title. The Tigers will host the GSC Tournament this weekend, beginning with a game against #6 seed Delta State.

#21 Millersville (38-9) has won 10 straight, and beat USciences in a non-conference game before sweeping four PSAC games from Mansfield to claim the East #1 seed in this week's PSAC Tournament. They will begin their tournament run with a game against California (Pa.), with the winner moving on to face the winner of Shippensburg/Seton Hill.

#22 Florida Tech (35-11) took two of three from Palm Beach Atlantic and will finish their regular season with a game against Webber International on Wednesday. Their SSC run is over, and they are currently fourth in the conference, but more importantly, they were fourth in last week's South regional rankings. They will need to hold on to a top-five spot to make the regional tournament, so it will be a lot of close monitoring for the Panthers this weekend and next.

#23 Catawba (38-12) won their first three games of the SAC Tournament, but dropped two straight to Wingate to end it as the Bulldogs took the tournament crown and put themselves in the Southeast regional tournament. Catawba was the region's #1 seed in last week's rankings, and have an opportunity to hold on to that spot this week with two games against USC Aiken and one against Mt. Olive, a heck of a way to end your regular season. Barring a loss in all three games, I anticipate Catawba holding on to a regional spot, but they can cement their #1 seed with three victories, even with their two losses in the conference tournament, I think.

#24 Southern Arkansas (35-15) beat Harding, then swept three games from Arkansas-Monticello. The Muleriders won the GAC regular season title and have the #1 seed for this weekend's GAC Tournament, where they will take on Southeastern Oklahoma State to begin the tournament.

#25 USC Aiken (33-14) beat Paine, Georgia Regents and Emmanuel before taking two of three from Flagler over the weekend, finishing out Peach Belt Conference play. This week, they will face Catawba in a pair of games, a pretty big regional match-up, as they prepare to take part in next weekend's PBC Tournament.

After that, let's take a look at the one region which has no teams ranked in the top 25, as we try and figure out the Midwest region, going by last week's NCAA regional rankings for the Midwest:

William Jewell (33-12) took a doubleheader from SW Baptist and took three of four from Missouri S&T, which should be enough to keep them at the top spot in the regional rankings. This week, they will face Newman for a single Wednesday game before facing Drury for four games to finish out the regular season.

Truman State (28-16) split a four-game series with Missouri-St. Louis, another regionally ranked team. They will finish the regular season this weekend with four against Maryville.

Quincy (31-14) went 6-0 last week, taking a doubleheader from Lincoln before sweeping four games from Maryville. They will face McKendree for a single Wednesday game before welcoming Missouri-St. Louis in to town for a four-game regular season finale.

Missouri-St. Louis (23-13) beat Illinois-Springfield and then split a four-game series with Truman State, as noted above. They will face Lincoln in a Wednesday doubleheader before heading to aforementioned Quincy for a four-game series.

These four teams are all battling for GLVC supremacy, and especially with that Quincy/UMSL series, things should be sorted out a little better following this weekend.

Ashland (30-14) lost to Walsh and then dropped three of four from Malone over the weekend before beating Lake Erie in a doubleheader on Tuesday. They will face Wayne State (Mich.) in a four-game series this weekend to finish the regular season.

Grand Valley State (28-14) won three of four at Hillsdale and then beat Lewis in a solid non-conference game on Tuesday. The Lakers will finish the regular season with a four-game series at Malone, but Ashland's lackluster weekend may have been enough to move GVSU up a spot in this week's regional rankings.

And in a G-MAC battle, which does not have an automatic bid, but does have a pair of teams battling for that final regional at-large spot if possible:

Alderson Broaddus (29-13) dropped a doubleheader to Seton Hill, swept a doubleheader from Bluefield State, then rolled Salem International in a doubleheader. Their opponent for four games this weekend? You guessed it...

Trevecca Nazarene (30-16), which split a doubleheader with Bellarmine and swept a four-game series from Cedarville before falling in a single game to Carson-Newman. TNU holds a two-game lead over ABU going in to this weekend's four-game series, meaning the Battlers will need to win at least three of the four. However, in the grand scheme of things, one of these two teams is going to have to sweep the other to have a chance at landing in the top six of the regional rankings.

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